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Card or Watch Pack
Special Series $250 WARM
Peak 7d
-57.5%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 3 polls
Max pull
25.4×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 3 polls
Range: -60.1% to -57.5%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
0.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$38
0.15× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 94% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $250 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Shohei Ohtani
Grail
2022 Topps Finest Flashback · beckett 9.0
$6,358
25.43×
—
0.0100%
$0.64
—
2
Luka Doncic
Grail
2018-19 Panini Contenders Optic · beckett 9.5
$6,358
25.43×
—
0.0100%
$0.64
—
3
watch_3030b7bc-2c0c-4d0c-96c9-2b13d3cb7281
Grail
$6,358
25.43×
—
0.0100%
$0.64
—
4
watch_9799b723-19e1-4c2b-a246-f320c0dd3b5f
Grail
$6,358
25.43×
—
0.0100%
$0.64
—
5
watch_9efa4eed-8580-440b-8a65-6efdeeef4d14
Grail
$6,358
25.43×
—
0.0100%
$0.64
—
6
Josh Allen
Grail
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$5,344
21.38×
—
0.0100%
$0.53
—
7
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$286
1.15×
—
2.0000%
$5.73
6h
8
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss · psa 8.0
$274
1.10×
—
2.0000%
$5.48
6h
9
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Hoops Premium Stock · psa 10.0
$273
1.09×
—
2.0000%
$5.46
—
10
Tom Brady
2012 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$240
0.96×
—
2.0000%
$4.79
—
11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$239
0.96×
—
2.0000%
$4.78
5h
12
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$235
0.94×
—
2.0000%
$4.70
1h
13
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$232
0.93×
—
2.0000%
$4.63
5h
14
Elly De La Cruz
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$218
0.87×
—
2.0000%
$4.35
3h
15
Mike Trout
2012 Bowman · psa 9.0
$216
0.86×
—
2.0000%
$4.32
3h
16
LeBron James
2003-04 Upper Deck LeBron James · psa 10.0
$214
0.86×
—
2.0000%
$4.28
3h
17
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$204
0.82×
—
2.0000%
$4.08
3h
18
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Update · psa 9.0
$201
0.81×
—
2.0000%
$4.03
2h
19
Tom Brady
2002 Playoff Contenders · psa 9.0
$196
0.78×
—
2.0000%
$3.92
2h
20
Aaron Judge
2025 Topps · psa 8.0
$192
0.77×
—
2.0000%
$3.83
3h
21
Paul Skenes
2024 Topps Update · psa 10.0
$155
0.62×
—
2.0000%
$3.09
2h
22
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Heritage · psa 9.0
$140
0.56×
—
2.0000%
$2.79
3h
23
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$53
0.21×
—
2.0000%
$1.06
2h
24
Puka Nacua
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
5h
25
Christian McCaffrey
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
1h
26
Aaron Judge
No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Now · beckett 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
5h
27
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
28
Cooper Flagg
2025-26 Topps Now Awards · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
27m 46s
29
Aaron Judge
2017 Topps Gypsy Queen · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
30
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Obsidian · psa 9.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
31
Tom Brady
2000 Impact · psa 8.0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
32
watch_0c7116b0-4b7d-4317-8b49-d702c74e4c09
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
33
watch_177979df-3a4b-4434-b196-12b4cf8aa361
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
34
watch_1f8dbabc-604a-47aa-9ca5-d73e52f9ed5f
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
35
watch_3918c953-66dc-42b9-b7c0-95cc23b0dd36
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
36
watch_407156c4-550a-4ffb-a92e-e86c9aa7a418
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
37
watch_539d6e74-8fa9-4854-8dca-d5c93015cd28
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
38
watch_656bf7f3-7173-4011-9cdf-c866631b0280
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
39
watch_673faab1-4fb1-4ab5-9a9b-c11f3c508508
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
40
watch_6762752d-b91f-45ad-9d5d-2d56b6d5dbaa
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
41
watch_69458296-57d4-4aa9-8318-945768cbc972
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
42
watch_7acb93c6-5cac-4a34-aad9-b57a67237396
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
43
watch_80434fbf-1458-4cdc-84c8-fc4dd3fb31c9
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
44
watch_809acab9-cdfc-439f-bb09-752bebd83e16
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
45
watch_847f5831-9372-4cc4-8519-61513665e5ed
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
46
watch_902a931c-1d1c-4766-8c90-a3eba20fd4a3
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
47
watch_92d2eb5a-13ed-4cec-904f-bcad6409fab7
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
48
watch_9fea814b-7dd8-4992-93dd-246debf1ddbf
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
49
watch_a4637fe4-020b-439c-9a5e-1f43c7ac0968
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
50
watch_aade7cc6-1d3c-4bfe-b244-d1f5ddf177ff
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
51
watch_afb2f269-94f4-4254-94da-a8888250d289
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
52
watch_de83ac5e-8a1c-4bb3-8585-cbb4994ca6d0
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
53
watch_f18d9ce6-e691-4df6-8d3b-62246e4f7716
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
54
watch_f2b9e4a2-dd8f-4132-804a-f89f1f74d320
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
55
watch_f3160228-ff36-4192-be18-054d1a9a79b4
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
56
watch_ff4de609-df9f-4088-8b55-c8cef30ca19e
$38
0.15×
—
2.0000%
$0.75
—
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$99.79
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