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Card or Watch Pack

Special Series $250 WARM
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EV
-60.1%
Snapshot from 6h ago · public view delayed 6h · Sign up free for the 1-hour view →
Peak 7d
-57.5%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 3 polls
Max pull
25.4×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 3 polls
Range: -60.1% to -57.5%
+EV crossings
break-even
≥2× pull
0.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$38
0.15× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 94% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $250 pack. Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Card or Watch Pack · Special Series · $250 ≤0.05× pack price — 0.00% chance ≤0.05 0% .05-.1× pack price — 0.00% chance .05-.1 0% .1-.2× pack price — 66.00% chance .1-.2 66% .2-.35× pack price — 2.00% chance .2-.35 2% .35-.55× pack price — 0.00% chance .35-.55 0% .55-.75× pack price — 4.00% chance .55-.75 4% .75-.9× pack price — 14.00% chance .75-.9 14% .9-1× pack price — 8.00% chance .9-1 8% 1-1.25× pack price — 6.00% chance 1-1.25 6% 1.25-1.75× pack price — 0.00% chance 1.25-1.75 0% 1.75-2.5× pack price — 0.00% chance 1.75-2.5 0% 2.5-4× pack price — 0.00% chance 2.5-4 0% 4-7× pack price — 0.00% chance 4-7 0% 7-12× pack price — 0.00% chance 7-12 0% 12-25× pack price — 0.010% chance 12-25 <0.1% >25× pack price — 0.050% chance >25 <0.1% Collect Safe floor · 0.889× break-even · 1.00× grail zone · up to 25× as of Sep 22, 2026 · 10:27 AM PT shouldirip.com
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Paul Skenes · 2023 Bowman's Best · PSA 10 pulled
3m 38s ago
$167
Jayson Tatum · 2024-25 Panini Flawless · PSA 9 pulled
3m 38s ago
$222
Shohei Ohtani · 2024 Topps Pristine · PSA 10 added
3m 38s ago
$105
Derrick Henry · 2024 Panini Prizm · PSA 9 added
3m 38s ago
$229
Live activity is Pro
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Card pool

Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.

56 cards · sorted by value ▼
1
Shohei Ohtani Grail
2022 Topps Finest Flashback · beckett 9.0
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
2
Luka Doncic Grail
2018-19 Panini Contenders Optic · beckett 9.5
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
3
watch_3030b7bc-2c0c-4d0c-96c9-2b13d3cb7281 Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
4
watch_9799b723-19e1-4c2b-a246-f320c0dd3b5f Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
5
watch_9efa4eed-8580-440b-8a65-6efdeeef4d14 Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
6
Josh Allen Grail
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$5,344
21.38×
0.0100%
$0.53
7
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$286
1.15×
2.0000%
$5.73
6h
8
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss · psa 8.0
$274
1.10×
2.0000%
$5.48
6h
9
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Hoops Premium Stock · psa 10.0
$273
1.09×
2.0000%
$5.46
10
Tom Brady
2012 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$240
0.96×
2.0000%
$4.79
11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$239
0.96×
2.0000%
$4.78
5h
12
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$235
0.94×
2.0000%
$4.70
1h
13
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$232
0.93×
2.0000%
$4.63
5h
14
Elly De La Cruz
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$218
0.87×
2.0000%
$4.35
3h
15
Mike Trout
2012 Bowman · psa 9.0
$216
0.86×
2.0000%
$4.32
3h
16
LeBron James
2003-04 Upper Deck LeBron James · psa 10.0
$214
0.86×
2.0000%
$4.28
3h
17
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$204
0.82×
2.0000%
$4.08
3h
18
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Update · psa 9.0
$201
0.81×
2.0000%
$4.03
2h
19
Tom Brady
2002 Playoff Contenders · psa 9.0
$196
0.78×
2.0000%
$3.92
2h
20
Aaron Judge
2025 Topps · psa 8.0
$192
0.77×
2.0000%
$3.83
3h
21
Paul Skenes
2024 Topps Update · psa 10.0
$155
0.62×
2.0000%
$3.09
2h
22
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Heritage · psa 9.0
$140
0.56×
2.0000%
$2.79
3h
23
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$53
0.21×
2.0000%
$1.06
2h
24
Puka Nacua
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
5h
25
Christian McCaffrey
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
1h
26
Aaron Judge No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Now · beckett 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
5h
27
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
28
Cooper Flagg
2025-26 Topps Now Awards · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
27m 46s
29
Aaron Judge
2017 Topps Gypsy Queen · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
30
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Obsidian · psa 9.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
31
Tom Brady
2000 Impact · psa 8.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
32
watch_0c7116b0-4b7d-4317-8b49-d702c74e4c09
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
33
watch_177979df-3a4b-4434-b196-12b4cf8aa361
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
34
watch_1f8dbabc-604a-47aa-9ca5-d73e52f9ed5f
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
35
watch_3918c953-66dc-42b9-b7c0-95cc23b0dd36
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
36
watch_407156c4-550a-4ffb-a92e-e86c9aa7a418
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
37
watch_539d6e74-8fa9-4854-8dca-d5c93015cd28
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
38
watch_656bf7f3-7173-4011-9cdf-c866631b0280
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
39
watch_673faab1-4fb1-4ab5-9a9b-c11f3c508508
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
40
watch_6762752d-b91f-45ad-9d5d-2d56b6d5dbaa
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
41
watch_69458296-57d4-4aa9-8318-945768cbc972
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
42
watch_7acb93c6-5cac-4a34-aad9-b57a67237396
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
43
watch_80434fbf-1458-4cdc-84c8-fc4dd3fb31c9
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
44
watch_809acab9-cdfc-439f-bb09-752bebd83e16
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
45
watch_847f5831-9372-4cc4-8519-61513665e5ed
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
46
watch_902a931c-1d1c-4766-8c90-a3eba20fd4a3
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
47
watch_92d2eb5a-13ed-4cec-904f-bcad6409fab7
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
48
watch_9fea814b-7dd8-4992-93dd-246debf1ddbf
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
49
watch_a4637fe4-020b-439c-9a5e-1f43c7ac0968
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
50
watch_aade7cc6-1d3c-4bfe-b244-d1f5ddf177ff
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
51
watch_afb2f269-94f4-4254-94da-a8888250d289
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
52
watch_de83ac5e-8a1c-4bb3-8585-cbb4994ca6d0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
53
watch_f18d9ce6-e691-4df6-8d3b-62246e4f7716
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
54
watch_f2b9e4a2-dd8f-4132-804a-f89f1f74d320
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
55
watch_f3160228-ff36-4192-be18-054d1a9a79b4
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
56
watch_ff4de609-df9f-4088-8b55-c8cef30ca19e
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
Σ   pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$99.79
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