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Card or Watch Pro
Special Series $250
Peak 7d
—
—
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
38.0×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -38.9% to -14.2%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
0.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$167
0.67× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
11% of pulls are worth at least the $250 pack (before fees).
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Grail
2013-14 Panini Flawless · beckett 9.0
$9,500
38.00×
—
0.0100%
$0.95
17d
2
Datejust
Rolex · 2006 · 116203
$8,000
32.00×
—
0.0100%
$0.80
—
3
Datejust II
Rolex · 2013 · 116300
$7,500
30.00×
—
0.0100%
$0.75
—
4
Joe Burrow
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$3,604
14.42×
—
0.0100%
$0.36
17d
5
Tom Brady
2007 Bowman Chrome · psa 8.5
$3,604
14.42×
—
0.0100%
$0.36
16d
6
Sea-Dweller 40mm
Rolex · 16600
$3,604
14.42×
—
0.0100%
$0.36
—
7
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$284
1.13×
—
2.6300%
$7.46
15d
8
LeBron James
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$271
1.08×
—
2.6300%
$7.13
16d
9
Tom Brady
2004 Fleer Tradition · psa 10.0
$265
1.06×
—
2.6300%
$6.98
15d
10
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$255
1.02×
—
2.6300%
$6.71
15d
11
Peyton Manning
2012 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$250
1.00×
—
2.6300%
$6.57
15d
12
M Mathy vintage
Mathey-Tissot · H903AR
$250
1.00×
—
2.6300%
$6.57
—
13
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Pop 1
2020 Topps Definitive Collection · psa 9.0
$221
0.88×
—
2.6300%
$5.81
16d
14
Cade Cunningham
2021-22 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$217
0.87×
—
2.6300%
$5.70
15d
15
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Hoops Premium Stock · psa 10.0
$210
0.84×
—
2.6300%
$5.52
15d
16
LeBron James
2015-16 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$209
0.84×
—
2.6300%
$5.50
15d
17
Mike Trout
2011 Bowman Chrome · psa 9.0
$202
0.81×
—
2.6300%
$5.30
16d
18
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$197
0.79×
—
2.6300%
$5.19
16d
19
Jahmyr Gibbs
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$184
0.73×
—
2.6300%
$4.83
15d
20
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$182
0.73×
—
2.6300%
$4.80
16d
21
Tom Brady
2000 Press Pass · psa 8.0
$180
0.72×
—
2.6300%
$4.74
15d
22
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$179
0.72×
—
2.6300%
$4.71
15d
23
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Score · psa 10.0
$176
0.70×
—
2.6300%
$4.63
16d
24
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$172
0.69×
—
2.6300%
$4.52
15d
25
Victor Wembanyama
2024-25 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$167
0.67×
—
2.6300%
$4.40
15d
26
Sports Automatic Blue Dial Mens Watch
Orient · RA-AA0913L
$167
0.67×
—
2.6300%
$4.40
—
27
Classic Automatic Navy Blue Dial
Orient · RA-AC0036L30B
$167
0.67×
—
2.6300%
$4.40
—
28
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Update · psa 10.0
$165
0.66×
—
2.6300%
$4.34
15d
29
DS-4 Quartz Grey Dial Brown Leather Mens Watch
Certina · C022.610.36.081.00
$165
0.66×
—
2.6300%
$4.34
—
30
Tom Brady
2005 SP Authentic · psa 10.0
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
16d
31
Quartz Crystal Black Dial
Bulova · 96K102
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
32
Mechanical Automatic Light Blue Dial Mens Watc
Citizen · NJ0191-83L
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
33
Sport Quartz Black Dial
Seiko · SUR560P1
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
34
Seiko Series 5 Automatic Silver Dial Mens Watch SNKL58
Seiko · SNKL58
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
35
Marlin Quartz Moon Phase Green Dial
Timex · TW2W51000VQ
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
36
Orient Kanno Automatic Blue Dial Mens Watch RA-AA0916L
Orient · RA-AA0916L19B
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
37
5 Automatic
Seiko · 2011 · SNKK86
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
38
Orient Kanno Automatic Blue Dial Mens Watch RA-AA0916L
Orient · RA-AA0916L19B
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
39
Citizen AR Blue Dial Blue Polyurethane Eco-Drive Mens
Citizen · AW1158-05L
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
40
Axiom Eco Drive
Citizen · AU1065-58E
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
41
Ceramic Quartz Green Dial Mens Watch
Mathey-Tissot · 2024 · H901CRAV
$153
0.61×
—
2.6300%
$4.03
—
42
The May Blue Dial
Swatch · SS07S125
$100
0.40×
—
2.6300%
$2.63
—
43
The May Blue Dial
Swatch · SS07S125
$100
0.40×
—
2.6300%
$2.63
—
44
Eco-Drive Orange Dial
Citizen · BM7630-80Z
$100
0.40×
—
2.6300%
$2.63
—
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$184.33
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