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Card or Watch Pack

Special Series $250 HOT
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EV
-55.4%
Snapshot from 6h ago · public view delayed 6h · Sign up free for the 1-hour view →
Peak 7d
-51.2%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 11 polls
Max pull
25.4×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 11 polls
Range: -61.3% to -51.2%
+EV crossings
break-even
≥2× pull
0.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$38
0.15× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 92% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $250 pack. Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Card or Watch Pack · Special Series · $250 ≤0.05× pack price — 0.00% chance ≤0.05 0% .05-.1× pack price — 0.00% chance .05-.1 0% .1-.2× pack price — 60.00% chance .1-.2 60% .2-.35× pack price — 2.00% chance .2-.35 2% .35-.55× pack price — 4.00% chance .35-.55 4% .55-.75× pack price — 6.00% chance .55-.75 6% .75-.9× pack price — 14.00% chance .75-.9 14% .9-1× pack price — 6.00% chance .9-1 6% 1-1.25× pack price — 6.00% chance 1-1.25 6% 1.25-1.75× pack price — 2.00% chance 1.25-1.75 2% 1.75-2.5× pack price — 0.00% chance 1.75-2.5 0% 2.5-4× pack price — 0.00% chance 2.5-4 0% 4-7× pack price — 0.00% chance 4-7 0% 7-12× pack price — 0.00% chance 7-12 0% 12-25× pack price — 0.010% chance 12-25 <0.1% >25× pack price — 0.050% chance >25 <0.1% Collect Safe floor · 0.889× break-even · 1.00× grail zone · up to 25× as of Sep 22, 2026 · 11:25 AM PT shouldirip.com
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Caleb Williams · 2024 Panini Select · PSA 10 pulled
55s ago
$346
Shohei Ohtani · 2018 Topps Update · PSA 9 pulled
55s ago
$240
CeeDee Lamb · 2024 Panini Absolute · PSA 10 added
55s ago
$221
Puka Nacua · 2025 Panini Donruss · PSA 10 added
55s ago
$215
Live activity is Pro
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Card pool

Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.

56 cards · sorted by value ▼
1
Shohei Ohtani Grail
2022 Topps Finest Flashback · beckett 9.0
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
2
Luka Doncic Grail
2018-19 Panini Contenders Optic · beckett 9.5
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
3
watch_3030b7bc-2c0c-4d0c-96c9-2b13d3cb7281 Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
4
watch_9799b723-19e1-4c2b-a246-f320c0dd3b5f Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
5
Sea-Dweller 40mm Grail
Rolex · 16600
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
6
Josh Allen Grail
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$5,344
21.38×
0.0100%
$0.53
7
LeBron James
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$352
1.41×
2.0000%
$7.03
5h
8
Mike Trout
2011 Topps Update · psa 8.0
$305
1.22×
2.0000%
$6.10
3h
9
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$296
1.18×
2.0000%
$5.92
6h
10
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$258
1.03×
2.0000%
$5.16
6h
11
LeBron James
2020-21 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$249
1.00×
2.0000%
$4.98
6h
12
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$239
0.96×
2.0000%
$4.78
3h
13
Paul Skenes
2024 Topps Chrome Update · psa 9.0
$233
0.93×
2.0000%
$4.66
2h
14
Jayson Tatum Pop 1
2024-25 Panini Flawless · psa 9.0
$222
0.89×
2.0000%
$4.44
2h
15
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$219
0.88×
2.0000%
$4.38
6h
16
Elly De La Cruz
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$218
0.87×
2.0000%
$4.35
4h
17
Jalen Williams
2022-23 Panini Obsidian · psa 10.0
$217
0.87×
2.0000%
$4.34
37m 9s
18
Aaron Judge
2015 Bowman Draft · psa 10.0
$215
0.86×
2.0000%
$4.30
3h
19
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$209
0.84×
2.0000%
$4.18
5h
20
Donovan Mitchell
2017-18 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$206
0.83×
2.0000%
$4.13
6h
21
Anthony Edwards
2020-21 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$185
0.74×
2.0000%
$3.70
5h
22
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$176
0.71×
2.0000%
$3.53
3h
23
Tom Brady
2002 Topps Chrome · psa 8.0
$176
0.70×
2.0000%
$3.52
6h
24
Tom Brady
2016 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$129
0.52×
2.0000%
$2.59
1h
25
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Pristine · psa 10.0
$105
0.42×
2.0000%
$2.10
56m 30s
26
Scottie Barnes
2021-22 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$51
0.20×
2.0000%
$1.02
2h
27
Puka Nacua
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
55s
28
Aaron Judge No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Now · beckett 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
23m 2s
29
Brock Purdy
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
30
Caleb Williams
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
1h
31
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Clearly Donruss · psa 8.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
32
watch_3918c953-66dc-42b9-b7c0-95cc23b0dd36
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
33
watch_39495c48-50c1-4f48-8c68-498add6481a7
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
34
watch_468b303a-593c-4a11-b74e-e57dd9f599e8
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
35
watch_4d251a72-ff6c-44db-a7ed-ddf37389238d
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
36
watch_5332d2fe-de61-4b23-975b-d420bcfb07ce
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
37
watch_5a14290b-091f-401b-bf49-16105b8c4db5
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
38
watch_5df071ef-9e1e-48ea-a428-1b6dae975943
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
39
DS Podium Chronograph
Certina · C034.654.16.037.01
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
40
watch_626e0033-716d-4f45-bdb6-4af04626c436
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
41
watch_661e8e93-318d-4ebc-b146-18652303a4f2
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
42
watch_76d8a5af-ee27-4e9a-9eb3-e363a947c048
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
43
watch_7901674e-a3a6-4f90-86dd-037c78dc02f9
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
44
Citizen Rolan Eco-Drive Brown Dial Two-Tone
Citizen · AW0156-57X
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
45
watch_8b84208d-062b-494a-8d7e-0af4da2b8ebf
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
46
watch_8ba46942-d0b4-406b-89f9-5d7d5861219a
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
47
watch_9a83c2ca-f2d0-4a36-9b1d-f761f1bfe63c
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
48
watch_aade7cc6-1d3c-4bfe-b244-d1f5ddf177ff
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
49
watch_adef6b77-ec1c-4abf-bbd6-8947c70364ee
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
50
watch_b1b45832-5137-4d7c-9fc5-3c7d1a761e82
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
51
watch_c195f3c1-ad94-4b19-9c33-0cccd8922a77
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
52
watch_e373aeb4-3273-4b18-815a-a3c241ba5fb8
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
53
watch_e8730fb4-1d18-4245-ad1a-78a6489b5819
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
54
Millennia Quartz Black Dial Mens Watch 97A183
Bulova · 97A183
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
55
watch_ffca61d4-d56d-4154-bba0-70a4ed0c1a60
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
56
watch_fff812de-f10d-46a3-b246-8192f881c856
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
Σ   pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$111.42
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