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GOAT-Elite
Special Series $500
Peak 7d
—
—
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
24.1×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -23.0% to -6.3%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
4.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$315
0.63× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
18% of pulls are worth at least the $500 pack (before fees).
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Ken Griffey Jr.
1989 Upper Deck · psa 9.0
$86
0.17×
—
2.0000%
$1.72
15d
2
LeBron James
2014-15 Panini Prizm · beckett 9.5
$122
0.24×
—
2.0000%
$2.45
15d
3
LeBron James
2024-25 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$156
0.31×
—
2.0000%
$3.12
15d
4
Michael Jordan
1992-93 Upper Deck · psa 9.0
$193
0.39×
—
2.0000%
$3.86
15d
5
Tom Brady
2006 Topps · psa 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$4.00
14d
6
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Finest · beckett 9.5
$200
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$4.00
14d
7
Bryce Harper
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$209
0.42×
—
2.0000%
$4.18
15d
8
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$241
0.48×
—
2.0000%
$4.82
15d
9
Allen Iverson
1996-97 Skybox E-X2000 · psa 8.0
$241
0.48×
—
2.0000%
$4.83
15d
10
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Now · psa 10.0
$258
0.52×
—
2.0000%
$5.16
14d
11
Kobe Bryant
1996-97 Fleer · psa 8.0
$259
0.52×
—
2.0000%
$5.19
15d
12
Stephen Curry
Grail
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$261
0.52×
—
2.0000%
$5.22
15d
13
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps 50/50 · psa 10.0
$262
0.52×
—
2.0000%
$5.24
15d
14
Kobe Bryant
1997-98 Flair Showcase · psa 9.0
$263
0.53×
—
2.0000%
$5.25
15d
15
Stephen Curry
2025-26 Finest · psa 10.0
$263
0.53×
—
2.0000%
$5.26
15d
16
Kobe Bryant
1998-99 Fleer Tradition · psa 9.0
$265
0.53×
—
2.0000%
$5.30
14d
17
Michael Jordan
1997-98 UD Collector's Choice · psa 9.0
$268
0.54×
—
2.0000%
$5.37
14d
18
LeBron James
2023-24 Panini Hoops Premium Stock · psa 10.0
$272
0.54×
—
2.0000%
$5.44
15d
19
Stephen Curry
2025-26 Topps · psa 8.0
$275
0.55×
—
2.0000%
$5.50
14d
20
Kobe Bryant
2017-18 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 9.0
$279
0.56×
—
2.0000%
$5.58
14d
21
Aaron Judge
2025 Topps · psa 10.0
$286
0.57×
—
2.0000%
$5.73
15d
22
Michael Jordan
1993-94 Fleer · psa 9.0
$287
0.57×
—
2.0000%
$5.73
14d
23
Aaron Judge
2023 Topps Cosmic Chrome · psa 10.0
$289
0.58×
—
2.0000%
$5.78
15d
24
LeBron James
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$302
0.60×
—
2.0000%
$6.04
14d
25
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Gallery · psa 10.0
$304
0.61×
—
2.0000%
$6.07
14d
26
Ken Griffey, Jr.
1996 Fleer Metal Universe · psa 8.0
$315
0.63×
—
2.0000%
$6.29
15d
27
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps 50/50 · psa 10.0
$316
0.63×
—
2.0000%
$6.32
14d
28
Patrick Mahomes II
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$328
0.66×
—
2.0000%
$6.55
15d
29
Tom Brady
2000 Pacific Crown Royale · psa 8.0
$350
0.70×
—
2.0000%
$7.00
14d
30
Shaquille O'Neal
1992-93 NBA Hoops · psa 9.0
$356
0.71×
—
2.0000%
$7.12
15d
31
Shohei Ohtani
2026 Topps Heritage · psa 10.0
$357
0.71×
—
2.0000%
$7.14
15d
32
Michael Jordan
1997-98 Fleer · psa 8.0
$362
0.72×
—
2.0000%
$7.24
14d
33
Michael Jordan
1995-96 Topps Finest · psa 9.0
$374
0.75×
—
2.0000%
$7.48
15d
34
Tom Brady
2004 Upper Deck · psa 10.0
$377
0.75×
—
2.0000%
$7.54
15d
35
Shohei Ohtani
2023 Topps Chrome Update · psa 10.0
$383
0.77×
—
2.0000%
$7.66
15d
36
Paul Skenes
2024 Bowman Sterling · psa 10.0
$387
0.77×
—
2.0000%
$7.74
15d
37
Michael Jordan
1997-98 Bowman's Best · psa 9.0
$393
0.79×
—
2.0000%
$7.86
14d
38
Randy Moss
1998 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$450
0.90×
—
2.0000%
$9.00
15d
39
Aaron Judge
2017 Topps Archives · psa 10.0
$452
0.90×
—
2.0000%
$9.04
15d
40
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Now · psa 10.0
$468
0.94×
—
2.0000%
$9.35
14d
41
Tom Brady
2000 Impact · psa 9.0
$474
0.95×
—
2.0000%
$9.48
15d
42
Shohei Ohtani
2025 Bowman's Best · psa 10.0
$519
1.04×
—
2.0000%
$10.38
15d
43
Shohei Ohtani
2025 Topps x Bob Ross: The Joy of Baseball · psa 10.0
$559
1.12×
—
2.0000%
$11.18
15d
44
LeBron James
2014-15 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$565
1.13×
—
2.0000%
$11.30
14d
45
Luka Doncic
2018-19 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$645
1.29×
—
2.0000%
$12.90
14d
46
Michael Jordan
1997-98 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$665
1.33×
—
2.0000%
$13.31
14d
47
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Cosmic Chrome · psa 10.0
$801
1.60×
—
2.0000%
$16.02
15d
48
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Bowman’s Best · psa 10.0
$827
1.65×
—
2.0000%
$16.54
15d
49
Bo Jackson
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$1,530
3.06×
—
2.0000%
$30.60
14d
50
Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne
2025 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$1,870
3.74×
—
2.0000%
$37.40
15d
51
Luka Doncic
2025-26 Bowman · psa 9.0
$11,108
22.22×
—
0.0200%
$2.22
16d
52
Kobe Bryant
2019-20 Panini Contenders · beckett 9.0
$12,067
24.13×
—
0.0200%
$2.41
16d
53
Stephen Curry
Grail
2016-17 Panini Studio · psa 10.0
$12,067
24.13×
—
0.0200%
$2.41
16d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$410.36
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