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Card or Watch Pack

Special Series $250 HOT
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EV
-55.7%
Snapshot from 6h ago · public view delayed 6h · Sign up free for the 1-hour view →
Peak 7d
-51.2%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 10 polls
Max pull
25.4×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 10 polls
Range: -61.3% to -51.2%
+EV crossings
break-even
≥2× pull
0.06%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.060%
grail odds
Median pull
$38
0.15× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 92% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $250 pack. Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Card or Watch Pack · Special Series · $250 ≤0.05× pack price — 0.00% chance ≤0.05 0% .05-.1× pack price — 0.00% chance .05-.1 0% .1-.2× pack price — 60.00% chance .1-.2 60% .2-.35× pack price — 2.00% chance .2-.35 2% .35-.55× pack price — 4.00% chance .35-.55 4% .55-.75× pack price — 6.00% chance .55-.75 6% .75-.9× pack price — 16.00% chance .75-.9 16% .9-1× pack price — 4.00% chance .9-1 4% 1-1.25× pack price — 6.00% chance 1-1.25 6% 1.25-1.75× pack price — 2.00% chance 1.25-1.75 2% 1.75-2.5× pack price — 0.00% chance 1.75-2.5 0% 2.5-4× pack price — 0.00% chance 2.5-4 0% 4-7× pack price — 0.00% chance 4-7 0% 7-12× pack price — 0.00% chance 7-12 0% 12-25× pack price — 0.010% chance 12-25 <0.1% >25× pack price — 0.050% chance >25 <0.1% Collect Safe floor · 0.889× break-even · 1.00× grail zone · up to 25× as of Sep 22, 2026 · 11:20 AM PT shouldirip.com
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Tom Brady · 2008 Topps · PSA 10 pulled
6m 20s ago
$233
Shohei Ohtani · 2018 Bowman Platinum · PSA 9 added
6m 20s ago
$38
Luka Doncic · 2018-19 Panini Donruss Optic · PSA 9 pulled
9m 12s ago
$265
Aaron Judge · 2017 Bowman · PSA 10 pulled
9m 12s ago
$220
Live activity is Pro
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Card pool

Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.

56 cards · sorted by value ▲
1
Puka Nacua
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
6h
2
Aaron Judge No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Now · beckett 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
20m 39s
3
Brock Purdy
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
4
Caleb Williams
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
1h
5
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Clearly Donruss · psa 8.0
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
2h
6
watch_3918c953-66dc-42b9-b7c0-95cc23b0dd36
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
7
watch_39495c48-50c1-4f48-8c68-498add6481a7
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
8
watch_468b303a-593c-4a11-b74e-e57dd9f599e8
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
9
watch_4d251a72-ff6c-44db-a7ed-ddf37389238d
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
10
watch_5332d2fe-de61-4b23-975b-d420bcfb07ce
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
11
watch_5a14290b-091f-401b-bf49-16105b8c4db5
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
12
watch_5df071ef-9e1e-48ea-a428-1b6dae975943
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
13
DS Podium Chronograph
Certina · C034.654.16.037.01
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
14
watch_626e0033-716d-4f45-bdb6-4af04626c436
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
15
watch_7901674e-a3a6-4f90-86dd-037c78dc02f9
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
16
Citizen Rolan Eco-Drive Brown Dial Two-Tone
Citizen · AW0156-57X
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
17
watch_8b84208d-062b-494a-8d7e-0af4da2b8ebf
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
18
watch_8ba46942-d0b4-406b-89f9-5d7d5861219a
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
19
watch_9a28fd8f-88ad-417f-9d1d-3589cf351b9c
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
20
watch_9a83c2ca-f2d0-4a36-9b1d-f761f1bfe63c
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
21
watch_aade7cc6-1d3c-4bfe-b244-d1f5ddf177ff
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
22
watch_adef6b77-ec1c-4abf-bbd6-8947c70364ee
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
23
watch_b1b45832-5137-4d7c-9fc5-3c7d1a761e82
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
24
watch_b6b73889-a1d5-479c-b70d-c4e2d5c2b87f
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
25
watch_c195f3c1-ad94-4b19-9c33-0cccd8922a77
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
26
watch_d8629d46-7e66-4485-b22e-5505b5dce28c
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
27
watch_e373aeb4-3273-4b18-815a-a3c241ba5fb8
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
28
watch_e8730fb4-1d18-4245-ad1a-78a6489b5819
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
29
Millennia Quartz Black Dial Mens Watch 97A183
Bulova · 97A183
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
30
watch_ffca61d4-d56d-4154-bba0-70a4ed0c1a60
$38
0.15×
2.0000%
$0.75
31
Scottie Barnes
2021-22 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$51
0.20×
2.0000%
$1.02
2h
32
Shohei Ohtani
2024 Topps Pristine · psa 10.0
$105
0.42×
2.0000%
$2.10
54m 7s
33
Tom Brady
2016 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$129
0.52×
2.0000%
$2.59
1h
34
Tom Brady
2002 Topps Chrome · psa 8.0
$176
0.70×
2.0000%
$3.52
6h
35
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$176
0.71×
2.0000%
$3.53
3h
36
Anthony Edwards
2020-21 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$185
0.74×
2.0000%
$3.70
5h
37
Shohei Ohtani
2018 Topps Update · psa 9.0
$201
0.81×
2.0000%
$4.03
3h
38
Donovan Mitchell
2017-18 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$206
0.83×
2.0000%
$4.13
6h
39
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$209
0.84×
2.0000%
$4.18
5h
40
Aaron Judge
2015 Bowman Draft · psa 10.0
$215
0.86×
2.0000%
$4.30
3h
41
Jalen Williams
2022-23 Panini Obsidian · psa 10.0
$217
0.87×
2.0000%
$4.34
34m 46s
42
Elly De La Cruz
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$218
0.87×
2.0000%
$4.35
4h
43
Shohei Ohtani
2019 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$219
0.88×
2.0000%
$4.38
6h
44
Jayson Tatum Pop 1
2024-25 Panini Flawless · psa 9.0
$222
0.89×
2.0000%
$4.44
2h
45
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$239
0.96×
2.0000%
$4.78
3h
46
LeBron James
2020-21 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$249
1.00×
2.0000%
$4.98
6h
47
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$258
1.03×
2.0000%
$5.16
6h
48
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$296
1.18×
2.0000%
$5.92
6h
49
Mike Trout
2011 Topps Update · psa 8.0
$305
1.22×
2.0000%
$6.10
3h
50
LeBron James
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$352
1.41×
2.0000%
$7.03
5h
51
Josh Allen Grail
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$5,344
21.38×
0.0100%
$0.53
52
Shohei Ohtani Grail
2022 Topps Finest Flashback · beckett 9.0
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
53
Luka Doncic Grail
2018-19 Panini Contenders Optic · beckett 9.5
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
54
watch_3030b7bc-2c0c-4d0c-96c9-2b13d3cb7281 Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
55
watch_9799b723-19e1-4c2b-a246-f320c0dd3b5f Grail
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
56
Sea-Dweller 40mm Grail
Rolex · 16600
$6,358
25.43×
0.0100%
$0.64
Σ   pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$110.78
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