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Quarterback Spicy!
Special Series $300
Peak 7d
—
—
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
36.7×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -19.1% to -4.5%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
2.16%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.080%
grail odds
Median pull
$230
0.77× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
19% of pulls are worth at least the $300 pack (before fees).
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Joe Burrow
2023 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$149
0.50×
—
2.0800%
$3.10
8d
2
Bryce Young
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$155
0.52×
—
2.0800%
$3.22
8d
3
Josh Allen
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2025 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$171
0.57×
—
2.0800%
$3.55
9d
4
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$171
0.57×
—
2.0800%
$3.55
8d
5
Lamar Jackson
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$174
0.58×
—
2.0800%
$3.62
9d
6
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$175
0.58×
—
2.0800%
$3.65
8d
7
C.J. Stroud
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$180
0.60×
—
2.0800%
$3.75
8d
8
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$188
0.63×
—
2.0800%
$3.91
9d
9
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$188
0.63×
—
2.0800%
$3.91
8d
10
Sam Darnold
2018 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$188
0.63×
—
2.0800%
$3.91
9d
11
Bo Nix
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$193
0.64×
—
2.0800%
$4.01
8d
12
Bo Nix
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$193
0.64×
—
2.0800%
$4.01
8d
13
Patrick Mahomes II
2021 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$193
0.64×
—
2.0800%
$4.02
8d
14
Drake Maye
2024 Donruss · psa 10.0
$200
0.67×
—
2.0800%
$4.16
8d
15
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Chronicles · psa 9.0
$200
0.67×
—
2.0800%
$4.16
9d
16
Drake Maye
2025 Panini Luminance · psa 10.0
$200
0.67×
—
2.0800%
$4.16
8d
17
Patrick Mahomes II
2018 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$201
0.67×
—
2.0800%
$4.18
8d
18
Jalen Hurts
2022 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 9.0
$203
0.68×
—
2.0800%
$4.22
8d
19
Baker Mayfield
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$205
0.68×
—
2.0800%
$4.26
8d
20
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$214
0.71×
—
2.0800%
$4.44
9d
21
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$216
0.72×
—
2.0800%
$4.48
8d
22
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$221
0.74×
—
2.0800%
$4.59
8d
23
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Certified · psa 10.0
$228
0.76×
—
2.0800%
$4.74
8d
24
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$230
0.77×
—
2.0800%
$4.78
8d
25
Patrick Mahomes II
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Finest · psa 8.0
$230
0.77×
—
2.0800%
$4.78
8d
26
Joe Burrow
2021 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$234
0.78×
—
2.0800%
$4.86
8d
27
Joe Burrow
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$241
0.80×
—
2.0800%
$5.02
8d
28
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$244
0.81×
—
2.0800%
$5.08
8d
29
Patrick Mahomes II
2019 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$245
0.82×
—
2.0800%
$5.10
8d
30
Patrick Mahomes II
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$247
0.82×
—
2.0800%
$5.14
8d
31
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$247
0.82×
—
2.0800%
$5.14
9d
32
Patrick Mahomes II
2022 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$262
0.87×
—
2.0800%
$5.45
8d
33
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Rookies & Stars · psa 10.0
$272
0.91×
—
2.0800%
$5.66
8d
34
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$275
0.92×
—
2.0800%
$5.71
8d
35
Baker Mayfield
2018 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$285
0.95×
—
2.0800%
$5.93
8d
36
Jalen Hurts
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$286
0.95×
—
2.0800%
$5.95
8d
37
Aaron Rodgers
2013 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$290
0.97×
—
2.0800%
$6.03
8d
38
Josh Allen
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$297
0.99×
—
2.0800%
$6.17
9d
39
Tyler Shough
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$298
0.99×
—
2.0800%
$6.19
8d
40
Patrick Mahomes II
2018 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$313
1.04×
—
2.0800%
$6.51
9d
41
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$315
1.05×
—
2.0800%
$6.56
8d
42
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$337
1.12×
—
2.0800%
$7.01
9d
43
Justin Herbert
2023 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$339
1.13×
—
2.0800%
$7.05
8d
44
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$355
1.18×
—
2.0800%
$7.38
8d
45
Patrick Mahomes II
2018 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$374
1.25×
—
2.0800%
$7.78
8d
46
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$400
1.33×
—
2.0800%
$8.32
8d
47
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$427
1.42×
—
2.0800%
$8.88
9d
48
Bo Nix
2024 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$880
2.93×
—
2.0800%
$18.30
9d
49
Lamar Jackson
Grail
2022 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$11,000
36.67×
—
0.0400%
$4.40
10d
50
Joe Burrow
Grail
No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$11,000
36.67×
—
0.0400%
$4.40
16d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$265.17
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From the blog
- Special Series Quarterback Spicy! Debuts at +9.5% EV, $300 Pack Oct 11, 2026 · 7:00 PM PDT