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Soccer
Emerald $500 WARM
Peak 7d
-20.7%
2d ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
26.3×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -27.2% to -20.7%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
2.09%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.090%
grail odds
Median pull
$336
0.67× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 86% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $500 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Erling Haaland
Grail
2023-24 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$13,140
26.28×
0.0300%
$3.94
—
2
Cristiano Ronaldo
Grail
2002-03 Panini Megacraques · psa 7.0
$12,561
25.12×
0.0300%
$3.77
25d
3
Lionel Messi
Grail
2018-19 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$11,000
22.00×
0.0300%
$3.30
18d
4
Jude Bellingham
Chase
2020-21 Topps Chrome X Steve Aoki Neon Future UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$2,523
5.05×
0.2500%
$6.31
—
5
Lionel Messi
Chase
2015-16 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$1,704
3.41×
0.2500%
$4.26
15d
6
Cristiano Ronaldo
Chase
2017-18 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$1,403
2.81×
0.2500%
$3.51
14d
7
Lionel Messi
Chase
2024-25 Topps Merlin UEFA Club Competitions · psa 9.0
$1,320
2.64×
0.2500%
$3.30
—
8
Erling Haaland
Chase
Pop 1
2024-25 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition UEFA Club Competitions · psa 9.0
$1,300
2.60×
—
0.2500%
$3.25
25d
9
Diego Maradona
Chase
2024-25 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$1,085
2.17×
—
0.2500%
$2.71
8d
10
Kylian Mbappe
Chase
2018 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 10.0
$1,053
2.11×
—
0.2500%
$2.63
13d
11
Kylian Mbappe
Chase
2022-23 Panini Obsidian · psa 9.0
$1,014
2.03×
—
0.2500%
$2.54
10d
12
Viktor Gyokeres
2023-24 Panini Select FIFA · psa 10.0
$677
1.35×
—
1.9600%
$13.27
4d
13
Erling Haaland
2022-23 Panini Select Premier League · psa 10.0
$596
1.19×
—
1.9600%
$11.68
4d
14
Vinicius Jr.
2022 Panini Prizm FIFA WC Qatar · psa 10.0
$579
1.16×
—
1.9600%
$11.34
1d
15
Lamine Yamal
2023-24 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$549
1.10×
—
1.9600%
$10.75
2d
16
Lionel Messi
2014 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 9.0
$540
1.08×
—
1.9600%
$10.58
3d
17
Lamine Yamal
2023-24 Topps Finest UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$520
1.04×
—
1.9600%
$10.19
7d
18
Rodrygo
2023-24 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$496
0.99×
—
1.9600%
$9.72
1d
19
Lionel Messi
2019-20 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$486
0.97×
—
1.9600%
$9.52
6d
20
Erling Haaland
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Topps Merlin UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$446
0.89×
—
1.9600%
$8.73
2d
21
Vinicius Jr.
2021-22 Panini Donruss Road to Qatar · psa 9.0
$446
0.89×
—
1.9600%
$8.73
9h
22
Lionel Messi
2022 Panini Instant FIFA World Cup Qatar · psa 10.0
$443
0.89×
—
1.9600%
$8.68
4d
23
Cristiano Ronaldo
2018 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 10.0
$442
0.88×
—
1.9600%
$8.67
1d
24
Trent Alexander-Arnold
2024-25 Panini Prizm Premier League · psa 10.0
$430
0.86×
—
1.9600%
$8.44
8d
25
Cristiano Ronaldo
2022-23 Topps Finest UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$423
0.85×
—
1.9600%
$8.29
1d
26
Jude Bellingham
2023-24 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$409
0.82×
—
1.9600%
$8.02
1d
27
Julian Alvarez
2024-25 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$405
0.81×
—
1.9600%
$7.93
13d
28
Kylian Mbappe
2017-18 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$395
0.79×
—
1.9600%
$7.75
1d
29
Kylian Mbappe
2017-18 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$395
0.79×
—
1.9600%
$7.75
4d
30
Lionel Messi
2007-08 Mundicromo Las Fichas de la Liga · psa 9.0
$393
0.79×
—
1.9600%
$7.70
8d
31
Christian Pulisic
2020 Panini On the Horizon Multi-Sport Panini Rewards · psa 9.0
$381
0.76×
—
1.9600%
$7.47
14h
32
Cristiano Ronaldo
2024 Topps Chrome Sapphire UEFA Euro · psa 10.0
$357
0.71×
—
1.9600%
$7.00
2d
33
Cristiano Ronaldo
2022-23 Topps Stadium Club Chrome UEFA Club · psa 10.0
$356
0.71×
—
1.9600%
$6.98
1d
34
Christian Pulisic
2022 Panini Prizm FIFA WC Qatar · psa 9.0
$344
0.69×
—
1.9600%
$6.73
6d
35
Cristiano Ronaldo
2014 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 9.0
$340
0.68×
—
1.9600%
$6.66
2d
36
Lionel Messi
2020-21 Topps Chrome Merlin UEFA · psa 10.0
$336
0.67×
—
1.9600%
$6.59
4d
37
Lionel Messi
2023-24 Topps UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$328
0.66×
—
1.9600%
$6.43
3d
38
Kenan Yildiz
2023-24 Panini Select FIFA · psa 10.0
$310
0.62×
—
1.9600%
$6.08
17d
39
Lionel Messi
2024-25 Finest UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$301
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.90
6h
40
Lionel Messi
2023-24 Panini Select FIFA · psa 10.0
$298
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.84
3d
41
Lamine Yamal
2023-24 Panini Adrenalyn XL La Liga · psa 10.0
$294
0.59×
—
1.9600%
$5.76
22h
42
Manuel Neuer
2022 Panini Prizm FIFA WC Qatar · psa 10.0
$294
0.59×
—
1.9600%
$5.76
10d
43
Cristiano Ronaldo
2014 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 10.0
$274
0.55×
—
1.9600%
$5.37
1d
44
Gavi
2022 Panini Prizm FIFA WC Qatar · psa 9.0
$259
0.52×
—
1.9600%
$5.08
2d
45
Kai Havertz
2021-22 Panini Donruss Road to Qatar · psa 9.0
$248
0.50×
—
1.9600%
$4.86
4d
46
Kylian Mbappe
2018 Panini Prizm World Cup · psa 10.0
$247
0.49×
—
1.9600%
$4.85
1d
47
Arda Guler
2023-24 Panini Select FIFA · psa 10.0
$244
0.49×
—
1.9600%
$4.78
2d
48
Cristiano Ronaldo
2015-16 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$221
0.44×
—
1.9600%
$4.32
1d
49
Bukayo Saka
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome Premier League · psa 9.0
$206
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$4.04
1d
50
Enzo Fernandez
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2022-23 Topps Chrome UEFA Club Competitions · psa 8.0
$206
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$4.04
6d
51
Christian Pulisic
2016-17 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$206
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$4.04
2d
52
Lamine Yamal
2023-24 Topps Finest UEFA Club Competitions · psa 10.0
$202
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.96
1d
53
Robert Pires
No Market Comps Found
2021-22 Panini Mosaic Premier League · psa 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
9d
54
Cristiano Ronaldo
2004 SP Authentic Manchester United · beckett 8.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
1d
55
Kylian Mbappe
No Market Comps Found
2023-24 Topps UEFA Champions League Japan Edition · psa 10.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
8d
56
Thibaut Courtois
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Panini Select La Liga · psa 10.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
1d
57
Javier Hernandez
No Market Comps Found
2019-20 Panini Prizm Premier League · psa 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
4d
58
Antoine Griezmann
2017-18 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$184
0.37×
—
1.9600%
$3.61
5d
59
Christian Pulisic
2016-17 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$164
0.33×
—
1.9600%
$3.22
6d
60
Lionel Messi
Pop 1
2020 Futera Unique World Football · psa 10.0
$110
0.22×
—
1.9600%
$2.16
1d
61
Alisson Becker
2021-22 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League · psa 10.0
$98
0.20×
—
1.9600%
$1.92
2d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$370.30
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