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The Chase - Football
Special Series $100
Peak 7d
—
—
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
48.5×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -29.5% to -15.6%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
2.09%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.090%
grail odds
Median pull
$61
0.61× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
Upgrade to Pro →
Pool composition
You're underwater on 81% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $100 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2023 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$20
0.20×
—
1.0000%
$0.20
—
2
Patrick Mahomes II
2020 Panini Origins · psa 9.0
$21
0.21×
—
1.0000%
$0.21
—
3
Micah Parsons
2021 Panini Phoenix · psa 10.0
$37
0.37×
—
1.0000%
$0.37
—
4
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Chronicles · psa 10.0
$37
0.37×
—
1.0000%
$0.37
—
5
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$39
0.39×
—
1.0000%
$0.39
—
6
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
7
Christian Gonzalez
No Market Comps Found
2023 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
8
Justin Herbert
No Market Comps Found
2022 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
9
Jordan Love
No Market Comps Found
2024 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
10
Derek Stingley Jr.
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2022 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 10.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
11
Trey Hendrickson
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2017 Panini Playoff · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
12
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Chronicles · beckett 9.5
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
13
Jared Goff
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
14
Joe Burrow
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
15
Caleb Williams
No Market Comps Found
2024 Panini Prizm · beckett 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
16
Aidan Hutchinson
No Market Comps Found
2022 Panini Origins · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
1.0000%
$0.40
—
17
Jared Goff
2016 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$42
0.41×
—
1.0000%
$0.42
—
18
Patrick Surtain II
2022 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$43
0.43×
—
1.0000%
$0.43
—
19
Patrick Mahomes II
2019 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$44
0.44×
—
1.0000%
$0.44
—
20
Sam Darnold
2018 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$45
0.45×
—
1.0000%
$0.45
—
21
Jayden Daniels
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$45
0.45×
—
1.0000%
$0.45
—
22
Nico Collins
Pop 1
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$45
0.45×
—
1.0000%
$0.45
—
23
Brock Purdy
2022 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$46
0.46×
—
1.0000%
$0.46
—
24
Joe Burrow
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$48
0.48×
—
1.0000%
$0.48
—
25
Malik Nabers
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$48
0.48×
—
1.0000%
$0.48
—
26
Bo Nix
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$49
0.49×
—
1.0000%
$0.49
—
27
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$49
0.49×
—
1.0000%
$0.49
—
28
Justin Jefferson
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$50
0.49×
—
1.0000%
$0.49
—
29
Justin Jefferson
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$50
0.50×
—
1.0000%
$0.50
—
30
Jared Goff
2022 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$50
0.50×
—
1.0000%
$0.50
—
31
Brock Purdy
2022 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$51
0.51×
—
1.0000%
$0.51
—
32
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$52
0.52×
—
1.0000%
$0.52
—
33
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$52
0.52×
—
1.0000%
$0.52
—
34
Jordan Love
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$52
0.52×
—
1.0000%
$0.52
—
35
Trevor Lawrence
2021 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$52
0.52×
—
1.0000%
$0.52
—
36
Lamar Jackson
2018 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$53
0.53×
—
1.0000%
$0.53
—
37
Saquon Barkley
2024 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$53
0.53×
—
1.0000%
$0.53
—
38
Trevor Lawrence
2021 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$54
0.54×
—
1.0000%
$0.54
—
39
Aidan Hutchinson
2022 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$54
0.54×
—
1.0000%
$0.54
—
40
Aidan Hutchinson
2022 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$54
0.54×
—
1.0000%
$0.54
—
41
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$54
0.54×
—
1.0000%
$0.54
—
42
Micah Parsons
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$54
0.54×
—
1.0000%
$0.54
—
43
Josh Allen
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$56
0.56×
—
1.0000%
$0.56
—
44
Bo Nix
2024 Donruss · psa 10.0
$56
0.56×
—
1.0000%
$0.56
—
45
Jalen Hurts
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$57
0.57×
—
1.0000%
$0.57
—
46
Jalen Hurts
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$57
0.57×
—
1.0000%
$0.57
—
47
Malik Nabers
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$57
0.57×
—
1.0000%
$0.57
—
48
George Pickens
2023 Panini Prestige · psa 10.0
$60
0.60×
—
1.0000%
$0.60
—
49
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$60
0.60×
—
1.0000%
$0.60
—
50
Jalen Hurts
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$61
0.61×
—
1.0000%
$0.61
—
51
Justin Jefferson
2024 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$61
0.61×
—
1.0000%
$0.61
—
52
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Phoenix · psa 10.0
$62
0.62×
—
1.0000%
$0.62
—
53
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Rookies & Stars · psa 9.0
$63
0.63×
—
1.0000%
$0.63
—
54
CeeDee Lamb
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$64
0.64×
—
1.0000%
$0.64
—
55
Chris Olave
2022 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$64
0.64×
—
1.0000%
$0.64
—
56
Joe Burrow
2023 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$66
0.66×
—
1.0000%
$0.66
—
57
Puka Nacua
2023 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$67
0.67×
—
1.0000%
$0.67
—
58
Josh Allen/Jordan Love
2024 Panini Contenders · psa 9.0
$67
0.67×
—
1.0000%
$0.67
—
59
Dak Prescott
2022 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$67
0.67×
—
1.0000%
$0.67
—
60
Saquon Barkley
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$68
0.68×
—
1.0000%
$0.68
—
61
Jayden Daniels
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$68
0.68×
—
1.0000%
$0.68
—
62
Joe Burrow
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$70
0.70×
—
1.0000%
$0.70
—
63
Chris Olave
2021 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$70
0.70×
—
1.0000%
$0.70
—
64
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$71
0.71×
—
1.0000%
$0.71
—
65
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Score · psa 9.0
$72
0.72×
—
1.0000%
$0.72
—
66
Brock Purdy
2022 Panini Chronicles · psa 10.0
$73
0.73×
—
1.0000%
$0.73
—
67
Patrick Mahomes II
2020 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$74
0.74×
—
1.0000%
$0.74
—
68
Lamar Jackson
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$74
0.74×
—
1.0000%
$0.74
—
69
Jordan Love
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$76
0.76×
—
1.0000%
$0.76
—
70
Patrick Mahomes II
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$77
0.77×
—
1.0000%
$0.77
—
71
Patrick Mahomes II
2024 Donruss · psa 10.0
$80
0.80×
—
1.0000%
$0.80
—
72
Justin Jefferson
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$82
0.82×
—
1.0000%
$0.82
—
73
Jared Goff
2024 Donruss · psa 9.0
$84
0.84×
—
1.0000%
$0.84
—
74
Ja'Marr Chase
Pop 1
2024 Panini Phoenix · psa 9.0
$87
0.87×
—
1.0000%
$0.87
—
75
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$87
0.87×
—
1.0000%
$0.87
—
76
T.J. Watt
2017 Panini Certified · psa 10.0
$88
0.88×
—
1.0000%
$0.88
—
77
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$89
0.89×
—
1.0000%
$0.89
—
78
Trevor Lawrence
2021 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$90
0.90×
—
1.0000%
$0.90
—
79
Brock Purdy
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$93
0.93×
—
1.0000%
$0.93
—
80
Jayden Daniels
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$98
0.98×
—
1.0000%
$0.98
—
81
Jonathan Taylor
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$98
0.98×
—
1.0000%
$0.98
—
82
Malik Nabers
2024 Topps Cosmic Chrome · psa 10.0
$106
1.06×
—
1.0000%
$1.06
—
83
Lamar Jackson
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$107
1.07×
—
1.0000%
$1.07
—
84
Ja'Marr Chase
2021 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 10.0
$111
1.11×
—
1.0000%
$1.11
—
85
Patrick Surtain II
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$122
1.22×
—
1.0000%
$1.22
—
86
Jordan Love
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$122
1.22×
—
1.0000%
$1.22
—
87
Justin Jefferson
2020 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$128
1.28×
—
1.0000%
$1.28
—
88
Derek Stingley Jr.
2022 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$128
1.28×
—
1.0000%
$1.28
—
89
Jordan Love
2020 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$129
1.29×
—
1.0000%
$1.29
—
90
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Chronicles · psa 10.0
$130
1.30×
—
1.0000%
$1.30
—
91
Matthew Stafford
2009 Bowman Chrome · psa 9.0
$131
1.31×
—
1.0000%
$1.31
—
92
Caleb Williams
2024 Donruss · psa 9.0
$134
1.34×
—
1.0000%
$1.34
—
93
Drake Maye
2024 Donruss · psa 10.0
$140
1.40×
—
1.0000%
$1.40
—
94
Josh Allen
2018 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$144
1.44×
—
1.0000%
$1.44
—
95
Jared Goff
Pop 1
2022 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$150
1.50×
—
1.0000%
$1.50
—
96
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$180
1.80×
—
1.0000%
$1.80
—
97
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$184
1.84×
—
1.0000%
$1.84
—
98
Joe Burrow
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$193
1.93×
—
1.0000%
$1.93
—
99
Patrick Mahomes II
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$225
2.25×
—
1.0000%
$2.25
—
100
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$237
2.37×
—
1.0000%
$2.37
—
101
Joe Burrow
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$3,913
39.13×
—
0.0300%
$1.17
—
102
Patrick Mahomes II
2024 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$4,306
43.06×
—
0.0300%
$1.29
—
103
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$4,847
48.47×
—
0.0300%
$1.45
—
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$78.87
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