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Football

Crown Jewel $5000
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EV
-35.4%
Snapshot from 6h ago · public view delayed 6h · Sign up free for the 1-hour view →
Peak 7d
-34.9%
2d ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
11.0×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -37.7% to -34.9%
+EV crossings
break-even
≥2× pull
0.39%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.050%
grail odds
Median pull
$3,055
0.61× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
2% of pulls are worth at least the $5000 pack (before fees). Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Football · Crown Jewel · $5000 ≤0.05× pack price — 0.00% chance ≤0.05 0% .05-.1× pack price — 0.00% chance .05-.1 0% .1-.2× pack price — 3.63% chance .1-.2 4% .2-.35× pack price — 0.00% chance .2-.35 0% .35-.55× pack price — 25.41% chance .35-.55 25% .55-.75× pack price — 50.82% chance .55-.75 51% .75-.9× pack price — 18.15% chance .75-.9 18% .9-1× pack price — 0.00% chance .9-1 0% 1-1.25× pack price — 0.00% chance 1-1.25 0% 1.25-1.75× pack price — 1.68% chance 1.25-1.75 2% 1.75-2.5× pack price — 0.050% chance 1.75-2.5 <0.1% 2.5-4× pack price — 0.290% chance 2.5-4 0% 4-7× pack price — 0.00% chance 4-7 0% 7-12× pack price — 0.050% chance 7-12 <0.1% 12-25× pack price — 0.00% chance 12-25 0% >25× pack price — 0.00% chance >25 0% Collect Safe floor · 0.889× break-even · 1.00× grail zone · up to 11× as of Oct 29, 2026 · 6:15 AM PDT shouldirip.com
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
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Card pool

Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.

38 cards · sorted by value ▲
#
Card · Set
Value ▲
V/P
Trend
Pull P
EV ctrb
Added
1
Cam Ward
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$965
0.19×
—
3.6300%
$35.04
5d
2
Redemption
2020 Panini Immaculate · arena_club
$2,000
0.40×
—
3.6300%
$72.60
5d
3
Joe Namath 1 of 1
2025 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$2,204
0.44×
—
3.6300%
$80.01
5d
4
Tom Brady
2000 Pacific · psa 10.0
$2,204
0.44×
—
3.6300%
$80.01
3d
5
Tom Brady
2002 Bowman Chrome · beckett 9.0
$2,204
0.44×
—
3.6300%
$80.01
8d
6
Baker Mayfield
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$2,292
0.46×
—
3.6300%
$83.20
9d
7
Peyton Manning
1998 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$2,307
0.46×
—
3.6300%
$83.74
16h
8
Adrian Peterson
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$2,452
0.49×
—
3.6300%
$89.02
3d
9
Tom Brady
2007 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$2,931
0.59×
—
3.6300%
$106.38
5d
10
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,010
0.60×
—
3.6300%
$109.26
5d
11
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,010
0.60×
—
3.6300%
$109.26
3d
12
Josh Allen
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$3,031
0.61×
—
3.6300%
$110.03
9d
13
Caleb Williams
2025 Topps Chrome Cosmic · psa 10.0
$3,055
0.61×
—
3.6300%
$110.88
1d
14
Tom Brady
2002 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$3,055
0.61×
—
3.6300%
$110.88
8d
15
Tyler Warren No Market Comps Found
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$3,055
0.61×
—
3.6300%
$110.88
10d
16
Thurman Thomas
2025 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,080
0.62×
—
3.6300%
$111.80
9d
17
Tom Brady
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$3,198
0.64×
—
3.6300%
$116.09
1d
18
Joe Montana
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,260
0.65×
—
3.6300%
$118.34
5d
19
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck Black Diamond · beckett 9.5
$3,360
0.67×
—
3.6300%
$121.97
5d
20
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck Black Diamond · beckett 9.5
$3,360
0.67×
—
3.6300%
$121.97
5d
21
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$3,580
0.72×
—
3.6300%
$129.94
4d
22
Walter Payton
2025 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$3,686
0.74×
—
3.6300%
$133.80
5d
23
Jordan Love
2019 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$3,881
0.78×
—
3.6300%
$140.88
5d
24
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck Graded · beckett 9.5
$4,432
0.89×
—
3.6300%
$160.88
8d
25
Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$4,432
0.89×
—
3.6300%
$160.88
9d
26
Redemption
2017 Panini Donruss · arena_club
$4,432
0.89×
—
3.6300%
$160.88
5d
27
Patrick Mahomes II
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$4,432
0.89×
—
3.6300%
$160.88
16h
28
Patrick Mahomes II Chase
2017 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$7,766
1.55×
—
0.2400%
$18.64
13d
29
Josh Allen Chase
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$8,126
1.63×
—
0.2400%
$19.50
5d
30
Ja'Marr Chase Chase
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$8,287
1.66×
—
0.2400%
$19.89
9d
31
Tom Brady Chase
2005 Topps Chrome · beckett 9.0
$8,287
1.66×
—
0.2400%
$19.89
14d
32
Travis Kelce Chase No Market Comps Found
2024 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$8,400
1.68×
—
0.2400%
$20.16
9d
33
Tom Brady Chase
2009 Bowman Chrome · beckett 9.0
$8,400
1.68×
—
0.2400%
$20.16
9d
34
Josh Allen Chase
2018 Panini Kaboom Rewards Multi-Sport · psa 9.0
$8,660
1.73×
—
0.2400%
$20.79
19d
35
Tom Brady Grail
2022 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$11,949
2.39×
—
0.0500%
$5.97
—
36
Joe Burrow Grail No Market Comps Found
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$17,000
3.40×
—
0.0500%
$8.50
—
37
Justin Herbert Chase 1 of 1
2020 Panini National Treasures · beckett 8.5
$17,000
3.40×
—
0.2400%
$40.80
4d
38
Patrick Mahomes II Grail
2025 Panini Absolute · beckett 9.5
$55,000
11.00×
—
0.0500%
$27.50
—
Σ   pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$3231.33
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