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Football
Diamond $1000 HOT
Peak 7d
-3.5%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
21.6×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -16.7% to -3.5%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
1.42%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.090%
grail odds ↓ cut 1.7× · 5d ago
Median pull
$811
0.81× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 77% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $1000 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Josh Allen
Grail
No Market Comps Found
2018 Panini Contenders · beckett 9.5
$21,571
21.57×
0.0300%↓
$6.47
5d
2
Tom Brady
Grail
2000 Bowman Chrome · psa 10.0
$21,571
21.57×
0.0300%↓
$6.47
5d
3
Patrick Mahomes II
Grail
2022 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$11,660
11.66×
0.0300%↓
$3.50
18d
4
Ray Lewis
Chase
2025 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$5,258
5.26×
0.1900%
$9.99
7d
5
Tetairoa McMillan
Chase
1 of 1
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$4,184
4.18×
0.1900%
$7.95
16d
6
Peyton Manning
Chase
2025 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$4,183
4.18×
0.1900%
$7.95
5d
7
Derrick Henry
Chase
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,933
3.93×
0.1900%
$7.47
10d
8
Joe Burrow
Chase
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$3,706
3.71×
—
0.1900%
$7.04
7d
9
Justin Jefferson
Chase
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$3,406
3.41×
—
0.1900%
$6.47
20h
10
T.J. Watt
Chase
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$3,085
3.08×
—
0.1900%
$5.86
2d
11
Matthew Stafford
Chase
2009 Bowman Chrome · psa 10.0
$1,967
1.97×
—
0.1900%
$3.74
16h
12
Barry Sanders
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$1,908
1.91×
—
1.9700%
$37.59
23h
13
Patrick Mahomes II
2024 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$1,670
1.67×
—
1.9700%
$32.91
14h
14
Joe Burrow
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$1,638
1.64×
—
1.9700%
$32.27
1d
15
Tom Brady
2000 Pacific Private Stock · beckett 8.5
$1,637
1.64×
—
1.9700%
$32.25
1d
16
Kyler Murray
2019 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$1,637
1.64×
—
1.9700%
$32.25
13h
17
Joe Burrow
2023 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$1,570
1.57×
—
1.9700%
$30.93
1d
18
Caleb Williams
2024 Topps Cosmic Chrome · psa 10.0
$1,525
1.52×
—
1.9700%
$30.04
13h
19
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$1,384
1.38×
—
1.9700%
$27.26
13h
20
Justin Jefferson
2022 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$1,381
1.38×
—
1.9700%
$27.20
17h
21
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck Encore · psa 8.0
$1,352
1.35×
—
1.9700%
$26.62
17h
22
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck · psa 8.0
$1,028
1.03×
—
1.9700%
$20.25
6h
23
Travis Hunter
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$979
0.98×
—
1.9700%
$19.29
18h
24
Cam Newton
2018 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$975
0.97×
—
1.9700%
$19.21
18h
25
Troy Polamalu
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$967
0.97×
—
1.9700%
$19.05
15h
26
Christian McCaffrey
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$954
0.95×
—
1.9700%
$18.79
14h
27
Justin Herbert
2021 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$942
0.94×
—
1.9700%
$18.57
18h
28
Aaron Rodgers
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$930
0.93×
—
1.9700%
$18.32
18h
29
Luther Burden III
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$880
0.88×
—
1.9700%
$17.33
14h
30
Tom Brady
2000 Pacific Crown Royale · beckett 9.5
$877
0.88×
—
1.9700%
$17.28
6h
31
Jerry Rice
2022 Panini Obsidian · psa 10.0
$857
0.86×
—
1.9700%
$16.89
13h
32
Randy Moss
1998 Upper Deck SP Authentic · psa 9.0
$848
0.85×
—
1.9700%
$16.71
3d
33
Saquon Barkley
2018 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 10.0
$828
0.83×
—
1.9700%
$16.31
13h
34
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$814
0.81×
—
1.9700%
$16.05
18h
35
Jaxson Dart
No Market Comps Found
2025 Panini Select · beckett 9.5
$811
0.81×
—
1.9700%
$15.97
6h
36
Julius Peppers
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$811
0.81×
—
1.9700%
$15.97
6h
37
Emmitt Smith
1998 SkyBox E-X2001 · psa 9.0
$791
0.79×
—
1.9700%
$15.59
19h
38
Jalen Hurts
2023 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$790
0.79×
—
1.9700%
$15.56
1d
39
Joe Namath
2021 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$785
0.79×
—
1.9700%
$15.47
13h
40
Patrick Mahomes II
2020 Panini On The Horizon · psa 9.0
$776
0.78×
—
1.9700%
$15.28
18h
41
Tom Brady
2000 Fleer Ultra · psa 8.0
$759
0.76×
—
1.9700%
$14.96
1d
42
Tom Brady
2006 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$749
0.75×
—
1.9700%
$14.75
18h
43
Tom Brady
2004 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$737
0.74×
—
1.9700%
$14.52
3d
44
Tom Brady
2006 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$736
0.74×
—
1.9700%
$14.50
16h
45
Ashton Jeanty/Jack Bech
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$679
0.68×
—
1.9700%
$13.38
6h
46
Dan Marino
2023 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$662
0.66×
—
1.9700%
$13.05
16h
47
Tom Brady
2002 Topps eTopps · psa 9.0
$658
0.66×
—
1.9700%
$12.95
16h
48
Travis Kelce
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$642
0.64×
—
1.9700%
$12.66
6h
49
Peyton Manning
1998 Bowman · psa 10.0
$633
0.63×
—
1.9700%
$12.46
6h
50
Tom Brady
2008 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$632
0.63×
—
1.9700%
$12.45
6h
51
Patrick Mahomes II
2025 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$631
0.63×
—
1.9700%
$12.43
16h
52
Tom Brady
2004 Bowman Chrome · psa 10.0
$627
0.63×
—
1.9700%
$12.35
6h
53
Tom Brady
2015 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$621
0.62×
—
1.9700%
$12.22
13h
54
Travis Kelce
2020 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$610
0.61×
—
1.9700%
$12.01
19h
55
Brock Bowers
2024 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$605
0.60×
—
1.9700%
$11.92
6h
56
Tom Brady
2021 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$598
0.60×
—
1.9700%
$11.79
1d
57
Jordan Love
2020 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 10.0
$597
0.60×
—
1.9700%
$11.76
13h
58
Tom Brady
2000 Upper Deck Victory · psa 8.0
$551
0.55×
—
1.9700%
$10.85
7h
59
Caleb Williams
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$517
0.52×
—
1.9700%
$10.18
2d
60
Tom Brady
2002 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$508
0.51×
—
1.9700%
$10.01
21h
61
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$168
0.17×
—
1.9700%
$3.30
1d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$964.62
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