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Football
Emerald $500
Peak 7d
-4.5%
1d ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
200.0×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -20.8% to -4.5%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
2.17%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.091%
grail odds
Median pull
$387
0.77× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
24% of pulls are worth at least the $500 pack (before fees).
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Randy Moss
1999 Skybox Molten Metal · psa 10.0
$80
0.16×
—
1.9600%
$1.57
6h
2
Tom Brady
2022 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$132
0.26×
—
1.9600%
$2.60
8h
3
Michael Penix Jr.
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
9h
4
Philip Rivers
2004 Topps Finest · beckett 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
19h
5
Baker Mayfield
2018 Panini Contenders · beckett 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
9h
6
Colston Loveland
2025 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$200
0.40×
—
1.9600%
$3.92
6h
7
Drew Brees
2022 Clearly Donruss · psa 9.0
$214
0.43×
—
1.9600%
$4.19
6h
8
TreVeyon Henderson
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$217
0.43×
—
1.9600%
$4.25
1d
9
Justin Herbert
2021 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$225
0.45×
—
1.9600%
$4.41
7h
10
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$247
0.49×
—
1.9600%
$4.84
11h
11
Malik Nabers
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$254
0.51×
—
1.9600%
$4.99
10h
12
Dak Prescott
2016 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$258
0.52×
—
1.9600%
$5.06
9h
13
Bijan Robinson
2023 Panini Spectra · psa 10.0
$258
0.52×
—
1.9600%
$5.06
13h
14
Drake Maye
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$279
0.56×
—
1.9600%
$5.46
19h
15
Patrick Mahomes II
2025 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$298
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.84
6h
16
Bo Nix
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$322
0.64×
—
1.9600%
$6.31
6h
17
Tom Brady
2006 Topps Chrome · psa 8.0
$324
0.65×
—
1.9600%
$6.35
11h
18
Barry Sanders
1990 Pro Set · psa 10.0
$327
0.65×
—
1.9600%
$6.40
6h
19
Tom Brady
2002 Upper Deck SP Authentic · psa 10.0
$332
0.66×
—
1.9600%
$6.51
6h
20
Lamar Jackson
2018 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$346
0.69×
—
1.9600%
$6.78
8h
21
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$355
0.71×
—
1.9600%
$6.96
6h
22
Bo Nix
2024 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$356
0.71×
—
1.9600%
$6.97
13h
23
Tom Brady
2000 Score · psa 8.0
$362
0.72×
—
1.9600%
$7.09
15h
24
Breece Hall
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$375
0.75×
—
1.9600%
$7.35
9h
25
Patrick Mahomes II
2020 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 9.0
$376
0.75×
—
1.9600%
$7.37
19h
26
Travis Kelce
2024 Donruss · psa 9.0
$387
0.77×
—
1.9600%
$7.59
1d
27
Adrian Peterson
Pop 1
2023 Panini Contenders Optic · psa 10.0
$402
0.80×
—
1.9600%
$7.88
6h
28
Tyler Shough
2025 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$408
0.82×
—
1.9600%
$7.99
1d
29
Calvin Johnson
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$408
0.82×
—
1.9600%
$8.00
7h
30
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$430
0.86×
—
1.9600%
$8.42
13h
31
Quinshon Judkins
2025 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$435
0.87×
—
1.9600%
$8.53
7h
32
Tom Brady
2000 Skybox · psa 9.0
$442
0.88×
—
1.9600%
$8.67
11h
33
Tom Brady
2019 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$445
0.89×
—
1.9600%
$8.73
20h
34
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Playoff · psa 10.0
$453
0.91×
—
1.9600%
$8.87
8h
35
Peyton Manning
2023 Panini Donruss · psa 9.0
$460
0.92×
—
1.9600%
$9.01
20h
36
Puka Nacua
2023 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$472
0.94×
—
1.9600%
$9.25
6h
37
Tom Brady
2000 Skybox · psa 9.0
$474
0.95×
—
1.9600%
$9.29
16h
38
Joe Greene
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$478
0.96×
—
1.9600%
$9.38
1d
39
Jonathan Taylor
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$494
0.99×
—
1.9600%
$9.69
10h
40
Ja'Marr Chase
2023 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$501
1.00×
—
1.9600%
$9.82
15h
41
Tom Brady
2014 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$511
1.02×
—
1.9600%
$10.02
10h
42
Josh Allen
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$532
1.06×
—
1.9600%
$10.42
11h
43
Tom Brady
2006 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$580
1.16×
—
1.9600%
$11.37
6h
44
Bijan Robinson
2023 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$590
1.18×
—
1.9600%
$11.57
6h
45
Caleb Williams
2024 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$605
1.21×
—
1.9600%
$11.87
7h
46
Justin Herbert
2020 Panini Spectra · psa 9.0
$629
1.26×
—
1.9600%
$12.33
6h
47
Patrick Mahomes II
2017 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$632
1.26×
—
1.9600%
$12.39
2d
48
Matthew Stafford
2009 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$690
1.38×
—
1.9600%
$13.53
6h
49
Derrick Henry
2021 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$732
1.46×
—
1.9600%
$14.35
15h
50
Ladd McConkey
2025 Panini Donruss · psa 10.0
$950
1.90×
—
1.9600%
$18.62
11h
51
Patrick Mahomes II
Chase
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$1,048
2.10×
—
0.2600%
$2.73
1d
52
Joe Burrow
Chase
No Market Comps Found
2025 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$1,275
2.55×
—
0.2600%
$3.32
1d
53
Matthew Stafford
Chase
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$1,275
2.55×
—
0.2600%
$3.32
2d
54
John Elway
Chase
2024 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$1,370
2.74×
—
0.2600%
$3.56
7d
55
Ashton Jeanty
Chase
No Market Comps Found
2025 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$1,370
2.74×
—
0.2600%
$3.56
10h
56
Patrick Mahomes II
Chase
2017 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$1,610
3.22×
—
0.2600%
$4.19
2d
57
Josh Allen
Chase
No Market Comps Found
2018 Panini One · psa 8.0
$1,747
3.49×
—
0.2600%
$4.54
1d
58
Terry Bradshaw
Chase
2025 Panini Absolute · psa 10.0
$1,747
3.49×
—
0.2600%
$4.54
1d
59
Joe Montana
Grail
2021 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$5,844
11.69×
—
0.0300%
$1.75
3d
60
Tom Brady
Grail
2020 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$11,033
22.07×
—
0.0300%
$3.31
2d
61
Tom Brady
Grail
2021 Panini Absolute · psa 9.0
$11,728
23.46×
—
0.0300%
$3.52
2d
62
Mickey Mantle
Grail
1952 Topps · psa 2.0
$100,000
200.00×
—
0.0010%
$1.00
14d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$428.93
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