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Basketball
Emerald $500 WARM
Peak 7d
-8.3%
2d ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
27.4×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -23.5% to -8.3%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
1.84%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.090%
grail odds
Median pull
$312
0.62× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 76% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $500 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Anthony Edwards
Grail
2020-21 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$13,683
27.37×
—
0.0300%
$4.10
22h
2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Grail
No Market Comps Found
2019-20 Panini Flawless · beckett 9.5
$9,760
19.52×
—
0.0300%
$2.93
4d
3
Luka Doncic
Grail
2024-25 Panini Flawless · psa 10.0
$9,760
19.52×
—
0.0300%
$2.93
9d
4
Luka Doncic
Chase
2024-25 Panini National Treasures · beckett 8.5
$2,072
4.14×
—
0.2500%
$5.18
15h
5
Nikola Jokic
Chase
2024-25 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$2,072
4.14×
—
0.2500%
$5.18
2d
6
Kon Knueppel
Chase
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome · beckett 9.0
$2,072
4.14×
—
0.2500%
$5.18
6d
7
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Chase
2025-26 Finest · psa 10.0
$1,468
2.94×
—
0.2500%
$3.67
7d
8
Luka Doncic
Chase
2020-21 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$1,405
2.81×
—
0.2500%
$3.51
10d
9
Cade Cunningham
Chase
2021-22 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$1,342
2.68×
—
0.2500%
$3.36
6d
10
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Chase
2023-24 Panini One and One · psa 9.0
$1,252
2.50×
—
0.2500%
$3.13
23h
11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Chase
2018-19 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$921
1.84×
—
0.2500%
$2.30
14d
12
Stephen Curry
2025-26 Topps Chrome Cosmic · psa 10.0
$802
1.60×
—
1.9600%
$15.73
12h
13
Kobe Bryant
1997-98 Metal Universe Championship · psa 9.0
$752
1.50×
—
1.9600%
$14.74
1d
14
Michael Jordan
1996-97 Topps Stadium Club · psa 10.0
$694
1.39×
—
1.9600%
$13.61
9h
15
Stephen Curry
2009-10 Upper Deck · beckett 9.5
$649
1.30×
—
1.9600%
$12.72
20h
16
Stephen Curry
2009-10 Panini · psa 9.0
$599
1.20×
—
1.9600%
$11.74
1d
17
Luka Doncic
2018-19 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$596
1.19×
—
1.9600%
$11.68
20h
18
LeBron James
2020-21 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$547
1.09×
—
1.9600%
$10.73
17h
19
Michael Jordan
1996-97 SPX · psa 9.0
$534
1.07×
—
1.9600%
$10.46
7h
20
Michael Jordan
1994-95 Upper Deck · psa 10.0
$530
1.06×
—
1.9600%
$10.39
2d
21
LeBron James
2016-17 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$526
1.05×
—
1.9600%
$10.31
19h
22
Michael Jordan
1997-98 Metal Universe Championship · psa 8.0
$522
1.04×
—
1.9600%
$10.23
20h
23
Michael Jordan
1990-91 NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$495
0.99×
—
1.9600%
$9.70
20h
24
LeBron James
2024-25 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$474
0.95×
—
1.9600%
$9.29
20h
25
Michael Jordan
1996-97 Fleer Ultra · psa 8.0
$458
0.92×
—
1.9600%
$8.98
19h
26
Kobe Bryant
1996-97 Fleer Metal · psa 9.0
$442
0.88×
—
1.9600%
$8.66
20h
27
Michael Jordan
1995-96 Topps · psa 8.0
$381
0.76×
—
1.9600%
$7.47
18h
28
LeBron James
2024-25 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$380
0.76×
—
1.9600%
$7.45
18h
29
Kevin Garnett
1999-00 Topps Gallery · psa 10.0
$376
0.75×
—
1.9600%
$7.37
7h
30
Kevin Durant
2007-08 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$365
0.73×
—
1.9600%
$7.16
7h
31
Michael Jordan
1991-92 NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$357
0.71×
—
1.9600%
$7.00
1d
32
Michael Jordan
1997-98 SP Authentic · psa 9.0
$343
0.69×
—
1.9600%
$6.73
15h
33
Shaquille O’Neal
1992-93 Fleer Ultra · psa 10.0
$337
0.67×
—
1.9600%
$6.61
10h
34
Steph Curry
2024 Topps Now Olympics · psa 10.0
$331
0.66×
—
1.9600%
$6.48
18h
35
Michael Jordan
1996-97 Bowman’s Best · psa 8.0
$330
0.66×
—
1.9600%
$6.47
10h
36
Kobe Bryant
1997-98 Fleer Ultra · psa 8.0
$312
0.62×
—
1.9600%
$6.12
22h
37
Kobe Bryant/Lebron James
2004-05 SkyBox Fresh Ink · psa 9.0
$307
0.61×
—
1.9600%
$6.01
7h
38
Shaquille O'Neal
1999-00 Fleer Force · psa 9.0
$305
0.61×
—
1.9600%
$5.98
6h
39
Michael Jordan
1992-93 Skybox · psa 10.0
$305
0.61×
—
1.9600%
$5.97
8h
40
Kobe Bryant
2003-04 Upper Deck Rookie Exclusives · psa 10.0
$303
0.61×
—
1.9600%
$5.94
20h
41
Dylan Harper
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$302
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.92
7h
42
Michael Jordan
1993-94 Fleer · psa 8.0
$300
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.88
22h
43
Giannis Antetokounmpo
2013-14 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$299
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$5.86
22h
44
Michael Jordan
2005-06 Upper Deck Reflections · psa 9.0
$295
0.59×
—
1.9600%
$5.78
8h
45
Shaquille O'Neal
1993-94 Upper Deck Special Edition · beckett 9.0
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
7h
46
Kobe Bryant
2000-01 Upper Deck Slam · beckett 8.5
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
20h
47
Kobe Bryant
2000-01 Upper Deck Hardcourt · beckett 8.5
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
20h
48
LeBron James
2003-04 Upper Deck LeBron James · beckett 9.5
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
1d
49
Kevin Durant
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
20h
50
Kobe Bryant
No Market Comps Found
2000-01 Upper Deck Slam · beckett 8.0
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
7h
51
Kobe Bryant
2000-01 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$290
0.58×
—
1.9600%
$5.68
19h
52
LeBron James
2022-23 Panini Prizm Monopoly · psa 10.0
$272
0.54×
—
1.9600%
$5.32
1d
53
Michael Jordan
1995-96 Metal · psa 9.0
$248
0.50×
—
1.9600%
$4.87
21h
54
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$236
0.47×
—
1.9600%
$4.62
10h
55
Paolo Banchero
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Donruss Optic · psa 8.0
$232
0.46×
—
1.9600%
$4.55
1d
56
Michael Jordan
1992-93 Topps Archives · psa 9.0
$232
0.46×
—
1.9600%
$4.55
6h
57
LeBron James
2024-25 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$220
0.44×
—
1.9600%
$4.30
7h
58
Kobe Bryant
2000-01 Upper Deck Encore · psa 9.0
$220
0.44×
—
1.9600%
$4.30
1d
59
Kobe Bryant
2003-04 Bowman · beckett 8.5
$220
0.44×
—
1.9600%
$4.30
22h
60
Julius Randle
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$212
0.42×
—
1.9600%
$4.16
21h
61
Kobe Bryant
1996-97 Stadium Club · psa 9.0
$212
0.42×
—
1.9600%
$4.16
8h
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$411.55
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