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Basketball
Silver $50 WARM
Peak 7d
-21.0%
6h ago
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
42.7×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -38.0% to -21.0%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
0.28%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.030%
grail odds
Median pull
$35
0.70× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
You're underwater on 76% of pulls — most cards here are worth less than the $50 pack.
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Luka Doncic
Grail
2018-19 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$2,136
42.72×
—
0.0100%
$0.21
18d
2
Kobe Bryant
Grail
1999-00 Topps Gallery · psa 9.0
$1,842
36.84×
—
0.0100%
$0.18
12d
3
Stephen Curry
Grail
2025-26 Bowman · psa 9.0
$1,720
34.40×
—
0.0100%
$0.17
6d
4
Luka Doncic
Chase
2018-19 Panini Revolution · psa 10.0
$114
2.29×
—
0.2500%
$0.29
7h
5
Joel Embiid
Chase
2014-15 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$92
1.84×
—
0.2500%
$0.23
8h
6
Nikola Jovic
Chase
2022-23 Panini Contenders · psa 10.0
$87
1.75×
—
0.2500%
$0.22
13h
7
Mitchell Robinson
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$83
1.66×
—
1.9600%
$1.63
6h
8
Alperen Sengun
Chase
2021-22 Panini Select · beckett 9.5
$83
1.66×
—
0.2500%
$0.21
1d
9
Scottie Pippen
Chase
1988-89 Fleer · psa 8.0
$79
1.58×
—
0.2500%
$0.20
2d
10
Cooper Flagg
Chase
2025-26 Topps Now · psa 10.0
$79
1.58×
—
0.2500%
$0.20
17h
11
Zion Williamson
2019-20 Panini Court Kings · psa 8.0
$78
1.56×
—
1.9600%
$1.53
7h
12
Cooper Flagg
2025-26 Panini Instant · psa 10.0
$72
1.43×
—
1.9600%
$1.40
6h
13
Cooper Flagg
Chase
2025-26 Panini Instant · psa 10.0
$72
1.43×
—
0.2500%
$0.18
22h
14
Michael Jordan
1993-94 Topps Stadium Club · psa 9.0
$70
1.40×
—
1.9600%
$1.37
10h
15
Luka Doncic
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$67
1.34×
—
1.9600%
$1.31
7h
16
Kobe Bryant
2005-06 SP Authentic · psa 9.0
$63
1.26×
—
1.9600%
$1.23
8h
17
De'Aaron Fox
2017-18 Panini Prizm · beckett 9.5
$60
1.20×
—
1.9600%
$1.18
9h
18
Kobe Bryant
Chase
2000-01 UD SPX · psa 8.0
$59
1.18×
—
0.2500%
$0.15
3d
19
Stephen Curry
2019-20 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$58
1.16×
—
1.9600%
$1.14
7h
20
LaMelo Ball
2020-21 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$56
1.13×
—
1.9600%
$1.11
6h
21
Ausar Thompson
2023-24 Panini Haunted Hoops · psa 10.0
$52
1.04×
—
1.9600%
$1.02
7h
22
Stephen Curry
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$50
1.01×
—
1.9600%
$0.99
6h
23
J.J. Redick
2006-07 Topps Finest · psa 10.0
$49
0.98×
—
1.9600%
$0.96
6h
24
LeBron James
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$49
0.98×
—
1.9600%
$0.96
7h
25
Trae Young
2018-19 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$47
0.94×
—
1.9600%
$0.92
6h
26
Nikola Jokic
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$47
0.94×
—
1.9600%
$0.92
7h
27
Kevin Durant
2007-08 Topps · psa 9.0
$46
0.93×
—
1.9600%
$0.91
12h
28
Michael Jordan
2009-10 Upper Deck Michael Jordan Legacy Collection · psa 9.0
$46
0.92×
—
1.9600%
$0.90
7h
29
Alperen Sengun
2021-22 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$44
0.88×
—
1.9600%
$0.86
6h
30
LeBron James
2019-20 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$39
0.79×
—
1.9600%
$0.77
9h
31
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Topps Chrome · psa 8.0
$39
0.78×
—
1.9600%
$0.76
7h
32
Anfernee Simons
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$39
0.78×
—
1.9600%
$0.76
6h
33
Tristan da Silva
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$39
0.78×
—
1.9600%
$0.76
8h
34
Franz Wagner
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Panini Prizm Black · psa 9.0
$35
0.70×
—
1.9600%
$0.69
6h
35
Kevin Garnett
1995-96 Flair · psa 9.0
$35
0.70×
—
1.9600%
$0.69
8h
36
Scottie Barnes
Pop 1
2024-25 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$35
0.70×
—
1.9600%
$0.69
12h
37
Kevin Garnett
1995-96 Topps Stadium Club · psa 9.0
$35
0.70×
—
1.9600%
$0.69
6h
38
Damian Lillard
2019-20 Panini Hoops Premium Stock · psa 10.0
$32
0.64×
—
1.9600%
$0.63
6h
39
Yao Ming
2002-03 Upper Deck MVP · psa 9.0
$32
0.64×
—
1.9600%
$0.63
11h
40
Anthony Edwards
2020-21 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$32
0.64×
—
1.9600%
$0.63
6h
41
Dwyane Wade
2003-04 Upper Deck Rookie Exclusives · psa 9.0
$30
0.61×
—
1.9600%
$0.60
7h
42
Tyrese Maxey
2020-21 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$30
0.60×
—
1.9600%
$0.59
41m 16s
43
Shaquille O'Neal
1992-93 Topps · psa 8.0
$28
0.55×
—
1.9600%
$0.54
7h
44
Cooper Flagg
2025-26 Topps · psa 9.0
$27
0.54×
—
1.9600%
$0.52
6h
45
Michael Jordan
1992 Skybox USA · psa 8.0
$26
0.52×
—
1.9600%
$0.51
7h
46
Michael Jordan
1991-92 Upper Deck · psa 8.0
$26
0.52×
—
1.9600%
$0.51
7h
47
Ty Jerome
2019-20 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$26
0.51×
—
1.9600%
$0.50
7h
48
Mfiondu Kabengele
2019-20 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$25
0.51×
—
1.9600%
$0.50
18h
49
Jalen Williams
2022-23 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$25
0.50×
—
1.9600%
$0.49
9h
50
LeBron James
2018-19 Panini Revolution · psa 9.0
$23
0.46×
—
1.9600%
$0.45
7h
51
Amen Thompson
2023-24 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$22
0.44×
—
1.9600%
$0.44
13h
52
Tyrese Maxey
No Market Comps Found
2020-21 Panini Select · psa 8.0
$21
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$0.41
14h
53
Bennedict Mathurin
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Panini Mosaic · beckett 9.5
$21
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$0.41
3h
54
Kobe Sanders
Pop 1
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Bowman · psa 9.0
$21
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$0.41
7h
55
Cade Cunningham
2021-22 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$21
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$0.41
6h
56
Anthony Davis
2019-20 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$21
0.41×
—
1.9600%
$0.41
19h
57
Michael Porter Jr.
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$19
0.38×
—
1.9600%
$0.38
7h
58
OG Anunoby
2017-18 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$19
0.38×
—
1.9600%
$0.37
6h
59
Darius Garland
2019-20 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 10.0
$15
0.30×
—
1.9600%
$0.29
18h
60
Matisse Thybulle
2019-20 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$13
0.26×
—
1.9600%
$0.25
9h
61
Matisse Thybulle
2019-20 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$13
0.26×
—
1.9600%
$0.25
14h
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$39.50
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