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The Chase - Basketball
Special Series $100
Peak 7d
—
—
% life +EV
0%
over last 500 polls
Max pull
34.9×
ceiling, this pool
EV trajectory · last 500 polls
Range: -41.4% to -2.0%
+EV crossings
≥2× pull
6.09%
fat-pull odds
≥10× pull
0.090%
grail odds
Median pull
$66
0.66× pack price, odds-weighted
CS Trigger
Pro only
How often does the 10%-extra-for-80%-floor insurance actually pay out on this pack? Estimates, not advice. You decide.
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Pool composition
20% of pulls are worth at least the $100 pack (before fees).
Red = below break-even; green = above. The amber zone is where Collect Safe's 80% floor catches you.
Live activity
Every pull or add moves the EV
Card pool
Top cards by AC market value. Grail chips mark the top 0.1%; Chase marks the tier below. Trend tracks each card's value across every pack it's appeared in — its full history, not just its time in this pack — climbing or falling.
1
Anthony Edwards
2024-25 Panini Prizm Black · psa 10.0
$3,488
34.88×
—
0.0300%
$1.05
23d
2
LeBron James
2014-15 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$2,614
26.14×
—
0.0300%
$0.78
—
3
Luka Doncic
2018-19 Panini Threads · psa 9.0
$1,190
11.90×
—
0.0300%
$0.36
—
4
Stephon Castle
2024-25 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$294
2.94×
—
2.0000%
$5.87
22d
5
Kevin Durant
2007-08 Bowman · psa 9.0
$294
2.94×
—
2.0000%
$5.87
22d
6
Tyrese Maxey
2024-25 Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$292
2.92×
—
2.0000%
$5.84
22d
7
Anthony Edwards
2020-21 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$151
1.51×
—
2.0000%
$3.02
22d
8
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$130
1.30×
—
2.0000%
$2.60
22d
9
Jalen Brunson
2018-19 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$116
1.16×
—
2.0000%
$2.32
22d
10
Kevin Durant
2022-23 Panini Obsidian · psa 10.0
$113
1.13×
—
2.0000%
$2.26
22d
11
Luka Doncic
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$109
1.09×
—
2.0000%
$2.18
22d
12
Nikola Jokic
2016-17 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$105
1.05×
—
2.0000%
$2.10
22d
13
Luka Doncic
2023-24 Panini Select · psa 9.0
$102
1.01×
—
2.0000%
$2.03
22d
14
LeBron James
2014-15 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$99
0.99×
—
2.0000%
$1.98
22d
15
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$94
0.94×
—
2.0000%
$1.87
22d
16
Anthony Edwards
2020-21 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$90
0.90×
—
2.0000%
$1.80
22d
17
LeBron James
2018-19 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$85
0.85×
—
2.0000%
$1.71
22d
18
Devin Booker
2022-23 Panini Recon · psa 9.0
$84
0.84×
—
2.0000%
$1.68
22d
19
Cooper Flagg
2025-26 Topps · psa 10.0
$82
0.82×
—
2.0000%
$1.65
22d
20
Amen Thompson
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$81
0.81×
—
2.0000%
$1.62
22d
21
Devin Booker
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$80
0.80×
—
2.0000%
$1.59
22d
22
Paolo Banchero
2022-23 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$78
0.78×
—
2.0000%
$1.55
22d
23
De'Aaron Fox
2020-21 Panini Revolution · psa 10.0
$76
0.76×
—
2.0000%
$1.52
22d
24
Victor Wembanyama
2023-24 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 8.0
$76
0.76×
—
2.0000%
$1.52
22d
25
Kon Knueppel
2025-26 Finest · psa 10.0
$71
0.71×
—
2.0000%
$1.43
22d
26
Chet Holmgren
2023-24 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$70
0.70×
—
2.0000%
$1.40
22d
27
Jayson Tatum
2024-25 Panini Prizm Black · psa 9.0
$67
0.67×
—
2.0000%
$1.34
22d
28
Paolo Banchero
2022-23 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$66
0.66×
—
2.0000%
$1.32
22d
29
Kon Knueppel
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$66
0.66×
—
2.0000%
$1.31
22d
30
LeBron James
2003-04 Upper Deck · psa 9.0
$58
0.58×
—
2.0000%
$1.16
22d
31
Matas Buzelis
2024-25 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$57
0.57×
—
2.0000%
$1.14
22d
32
Giannis Antetokounmpo
2013-14 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 9.0
$56
0.56×
—
2.0000%
$1.11
22d
33
LeBron James
2017-18 Panini Donruss Optic · psa 10.0
$54
0.54×
—
2.0000%
$1.08
22d
34
Zach Edey
2024-25 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$50
0.50×
—
2.0000%
$1.00
22d
35
Giannis Antetokounmpo
2019-20 Panini Mosaic · psa 10.0
$46
0.46×
—
2.0000%
$0.92
22d
36
Alperen Sengun
2021-22 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$46
0.46×
—
2.0000%
$0.92
22d
37
Stephon Castle
2024-25 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$45
0.45×
—
2.0000%
$0.90
22d
38
Kon Knueppel
2025-26 Topps Now · psa 10.0
$45
0.45×
—
2.0000%
$0.90
22d
39
Dylan Harper
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$42
0.42×
—
2.0000%
$0.84
22d
40
Jayson Tatum
No Market Comps Found
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
41
Luka Doncic
No Market Comps Found
2024-25 Panini NBA Hoops · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
42
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
43
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2023-24 Panini Select · beckett 9.5
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
44
Giannis Antetokounmpo
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 10.0
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
45
Stephen Curry
2022-23 Panini Select · beckett 9.5
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
46
Cade Cunningham
No Market Comps Found
2025-26 Topps Chrome · psa 9.0
$40
0.40×
—
2.0000%
$0.80
22d
47
Paolo Banchero
2022-23 Panini Prizm · psa 10.0
$37
0.37×
—
2.0000%
$0.74
22d
48
Stephon Castle
2024-25 Donruss Optic · psa 9.0
$29
0.29×
—
2.0000%
$0.58
22d
49
LeBron James
2019-20 Panini Mosaic · psa 9.0
$26
0.26×
—
2.0000%
$0.52
22d
50
LeBron James
2023-24 Panini Prizm · psa 9.0
$23
0.23×
—
2.0000%
$0.45
22d
51
Brandon Miller
2023-24 Panini Select · psa 10.0
$19
0.19×
—
2.0000%
$0.38
22d
52
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2018-19 Panini Threads · arena_club 10.0
$19
0.19×
—
2.0000%
$0.37
22d
53
Cade Cunningham
2022-23 Panini Donruss Optic · arena_club 10.0
$10
0.10×
—
2.0000%
$0.20
22d
Σ pool EV (Σ value × pull probability)
$80.39
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